For most companies, the 2009 Christmas period was better than the previous year, but it wasn't great, and supermarket chains expect trading to be difficult over the next 12 months. Perhaps 2010 retail sales will be the same as last year, but certainly no worse, the British Retail Consortium recently assessed.

What does this mean for seafood, a GBP 2.8 billion (USD 4.6 billion, EUR 3.2 billion) retail category that, despite the economic downturn, has continued its trend of recording modest sales increases without actually selling any additional tonnage?

For buyers, this is certain to be a year of forward planning — for 2011 and 2012 — when consumer confidence should be back in earnest. In the interim, they won't stray far from a well-trodden path. Although that's not to say this will be a year bereft of change, there are other factors in play.

Farmed Atlantic salmon sold extremely well in 2009 and it should sustain this performance, although whether Norway and Scotland can continue to safely ramp up production to satisfy growing demand is in serious doubt.

Norway's head has been turned by the United States, and all European supplies are sure to thin out as producers continue their assault on this lucrative "new" market. Meanwhile, the country's analysts have predicted producers' prices will reach NOK 40 (USD 6.96, EUR 4.91) per kilogram in the summer months, though they hint this could be much higher.

On the high street, depleted supplies and higher prices would put an end to offers like the half-price whole salmon that had Tesco's customers reaching for their wallets in droves in December and early January.

And no one, said analysts, is tempting fate by pondering the catastrophic effects a European disease outbreak would have on the global farmed salmon market.

Interestingly, while the United States has been replacing its supply of Chilean-produced Atlantic salmon with Norwegian product, European processors, including the giants Findus and Birds Eye Iglo, have been importing large quantities of Pacific salmon.

Source: Seafood Source

Updated by Vietfish Community